The analysis of both TCF (Textile, Clothing, & Footwear) Retail Index and footwear imports show that German consumers chose “to enjoy the present before it is too late”. In July, retail trade was still healthy enough to accommodate the price increases caused, first, by the impact of the pandemic on the global supply, and then, by the skyrocketing of energy prices following the Ukraine crisis, not to mention the high inflation. However, given the free fall of consumers’ and retailers’ confidence observed since March, additional uncertainties are expected to arise throughout Autumn. Furthermore, despite all gains observed in the recent past, the online seems to be losing some track, and the macroeconomic environment will not be an ally during the second half of 2022   

Looking exclusively into the available evidence from the comparison between the monthly behaviour of footwear imports and the TCF (Textile, Clothing, & Footwear) Retail Index in Spain, as well as the TCF Retail Indicator by Eurostat, there are not yet red lights on the retail side, so far. But, as more consumers struggle to make ends meet with high inflation and increases in gas and electricity, footwear retail is expected to soon be a victim of the need to divert from non-essentials. Meanwhile, online sales appear to have stabilized, so, with the COVID-19 influence out of the picture, it is up to retailers to continue investing in this channel, where there is much yet to be done   

The Footwear Retail Sales Index (by BdF) reached in July its lower score in thirteen months in a row, and data from imports from the same month which will most likely make importers revise their decisions to the downside after the increasing value available for june. Despite a slight relief in consumer confidence in August due to Governmental aid, the increase in prices left little space in the wallet for discretionary footwear purchases. Meanwhile, online retail seems to have gained about 50 percentage points in 30 months in France, but data does not allow us yet to conclude whether the footwear segment shares this performance   

Despite a 6 percentage points gain in the TCF (Textile, Clothing, & Footwear) Retail Sales Index in the second quarter of 2022, over the prior one, and a positive trajectory in footwear imports, prospects do not look good for retail. Amidst skyrocketing inflation and the worst consumer sentiment since 1974, the footwear consumer can barely afford further price increases, making the retail volume tilted to the downside. With the threat of a recession from the fourth quarter on, the majority of retailers believe that the cost-of-living crisis will be almost twice as damaging as the COVID-19 pandemic