World Footwear Retail Flash Reports
Retail Flash: insights from key footwear markets
Explore the main retail trends in France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, the UK, the US and Spain from our Retail Flash reports, highlighting volatility in 2024 and mixed consumer and retailer sentiment. In particular, new tariffs on key trading partners could put pressure on US footwear prices, Germany’s online sector continues to expand and Japan faces rising inflation
Japan Retail: no concrete forecasts as the country adjusts to a new economic paradigm
While the online channel continues to stand out in a retail market that has seen a slight increase in spending since September 2024, the fashion sector has struggled the most, most likely due to the warm weather that has affected seasonal shopping. For footwear in particular, after a year of low prices, there’s reason to wonder if the picture of near-zero interest rates could hurt consumer behaviour, as their confidence wanes. The overall stability of imports, despite currency fluctuations, doesn't allow for a concrete forecast
US Retail: fuzzy outlook for the year 2025
While footwear sales are expected to have ended 2024 on a high note, overall retail sales were more subdued than in the previous year, suggesting that consumers were cautiously optimistic throughout the year. However, rising inflation in the final months of the year appears to have made them wary again and import figures suggesting that retailers will need to stock up again may be hard to come by, as the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on goods from Mexico, Canada and China have caused some instability. While the outlook for 2025 is not negative, it is certainly not euphoric
UK Retail: the future is not looking very bright
Textile, Clothing and Footwear (TCF) sales have held their own in the final quarter of the year, showing resilience to the drag from overall retail sales. However, the sticky above-target inflation in the UK over the past year is a cause for concern as wages fail to keep pace. In addition, the higher costs for retailers predicted in the last Budget may leave them with little choice but to raise prices and cut jobs. As much as imports have shown some stability, the future for the retail sector is not looking very bright at the moment
Germany Retail: cautious optimist prevails as the year begins
There are no fireworks in the German retail sector. Overall sales are stable, with e-commerce standing out, inflation is on target, and consumer confidence, which remains negative, has risen slightly. However, retailers have experienced a rollercoaster of emotions throughout 2024, and the only certainty at the start of the year is cautious optimism. Political turmoil, economic difficulties and geopolitical conflicts could just as easily lead to a turbulent year for retail
Spain Retail: will the positive momentum hold up?
Fashion retail sales were generally positive from July to November 2024, but will this trend continue? While we await official data on year-end sales, the negative footwear inflation seen in October and November, combined with a rise in consumer confidence, may have helped to boost spending. And with import figures showing that retailers were stocking up, let’s hope the holidays were the reason, as a recent dip in retail confidence could be just the bad news the sector didn’t need to hear at the start of the year
France Retail: retailers cautiously optimistic for the holidays
October brought good news for footwear sales and retailer confidence is also on the rise, despite negative footwear inflation and rising costs. However, the picture isn’t clear regarding consumer confidence, which fell to a five-month low in November as households worried about the economic outlook in light of France’s difficult political environment. Will this weigh on footwear sales in the last two months of the year, or will recent news that consumers are planning to spend more on the festive season prevail?
Netherlands Retail: good expectations for the footwear holiday season
After record growth between July and September, footwear sales fell abruptly in October, accompanied by a hiccup in consumer confidence. But that’s no cause for despair: lower footwear inflation has kept footwear prices relatively stable and there has been a recent upturn in retailer confidence. This could bode well for the future of footwear imports, especially with the festive season just around the corner. In this context, the online channel will continue to be favoured by Dutch consumers to shop
Retail Flash: insights from key footwear markets
Explore the main retail trends in France, Germany, Japan, the UK, the US and Spain from our Retail Flash reports, highlighting a mix of recovery, persistent challenges and cautious optimism in global markets. In particular, while France and Germany continue to struggle, the US and Spain show signs of retail optimism
Japan Retail: the picture is unclear for both consumers and retailers
Contrary to what was suggested in our previous flash, fashion retail sales have fallen sharply since April, by a total of 22.8%, while total retail sales have remained somewhat stable. In this context, the low footwear inflation in Japan, now close to 0%, tends to indicate a lack of demand. Perhaps the growth in consumer spending and tourism will help to turn the situation around, especially given the falling yen in September. However, for now, the future remains unclear for all
US Retail: expectations on the rise for the last quarter
The summer months have brought relief to footwear retailers, as sales in the category now appear to be on an upward trend. Although consumers remain cautious, the slowdown in employment and inflation is somehow starting to lift their spirits and retailers are showing signs of restocking. As the winter holidays approach, and despite question marks over the geopolitical turmoil and the upcoming presidential election, it’s safe to say that expectations are on the rise
UK Retail: good signs for the run-up to Christmas
The cold weather in July did not bring good news for the UK retail sector, but the following two months spiced things up again. Fashion retail sales appear to be back on track with the wider economy, as continued falling inflation has led to lower prices. Consumers are still reluctant to spend given the difficulties of recent years, but the challenge for retailers is now to keep up and not fall behind again in order to boost demand in the months leading to Christmas
Germany Retail: dark clouds are hanging again over the footwear sector
The positive signs on the horizon for the footwear retail sector reported in the previous Flash were short-lived. Sales in the first half of the year were not what retailers had hoped for, and the continued stabilisation of shoe prices shows no signs of turning the situation around. Against a negative macroeconomic backdrop, consumer confidence has been downward, and retailers face many challenges, including business closures and labour market instability. Footwear imports have started to fall, pointing to a possible crisis in the sector
Spain Retail: the future looks brighter for retail
Fashion sales finally picked up in July and August and are back in the green, after a worrying March. The truth is that the prospect of better economic growth and recent falls in inflation and unemployment have reassured Spanish consumers and given them a sense that the future may be brighter. All in all, this has led retailers to stock up in the hope that sales will continue to rise in the coming months. If these factors remain in place, the footwear sector is likely to end the year on a positive note
France Retail: still a blurred picture for footwear retail
French footwear retailers seem to be at a crossroads trying to figure out what will happen next. Prices are flat, sales are slow, consumer confidence is in general volatile, and stocks are building up (leading to a fall in imports). There was, however, a small improvement in consumer confidence in August, in line with the downward trend in inflation, suggesting that a much-needed relief may be reaching French households. Still, this may not be enough to boost retail sales this year as political uncertainty continues to cloud the horizon-
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