Imports
Retail Flash: insights from key footwear markets
Explore the main retail trends in France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, the UK, the US and Spain from our Retail Flash reports, highlighting volatility in 2024 and mixed consumer and retailer sentiment. In particular, new tariffs on key trading partners could put pressure on US footwear prices, Germany’s online sector continues to expand and Japan faces rising inflation
Japan Retail: no concrete forecasts as the country adjusts to a new economic paradigm
While the online channel continues to stand out in a retail market that has seen a slight increase in spending since September 2024, the fashion sector has struggled the most, most likely due to the warm weather that has affected seasonal shopping. For footwear in particular, after a year of low prices, there’s reason to wonder if the picture of near-zero interest rates could hurt consumer behaviour, as their confidence wanes. The overall stability of imports, despite currency fluctuations, doesn't allow for a concrete forecast
Germany’s shoe industry navigates market changes
German footwear imports dropped, with Vietnam overtaking China as the leading supplier. Higher wages, inflation and political uncertainty add to the challenges shaping the industry’s outlook for 2025
US Retail: fuzzy outlook for the year 2025
While footwear sales are expected to have ended 2024 on a high note, overall retail sales were more subdued than in the previous year, suggesting that consumers were cautiously optimistic throughout the year. However, rising inflation in the final months of the year appears to have made them wary again and import figures suggesting that retailers will need to stock up again may be hard to come by, as the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on goods from Mexico, Canada and China have caused some instability. While the outlook for 2025 is not negative, it is certainly not euphoric
UK Retail: the future is not looking very bright
Textile, Clothing and Footwear (TCF) sales have held their own in the final quarter of the year, showing resilience to the drag from overall retail sales. However, the sticky above-target inflation in the UK over the past year is a cause for concern as wages fail to keep pace. In addition, the higher costs for retailers predicted in the last Budget may leave them with little choice but to raise prices and cut jobs. As much as imports have shown some stability, the future for the retail sector is not looking very bright at the moment
Germany Retail: cautious optimist prevails as the year begins
There are no fireworks in the German retail sector. Overall sales are stable, with e-commerce standing out, inflation is on target, and consumer confidence, which remains negative, has risen slightly. However, retailers have experienced a rollercoaster of emotions throughout 2024, and the only certainty at the start of the year is cautious optimism. Political turmoil, economic difficulties and geopolitical conflicts could just as easily lead to a turbulent year for retail
Spain Retail: will the positive momentum hold up?
Fashion retail sales were generally positive from July to November 2024, but will this trend continue? While we await official data on year-end sales, the negative footwear inflation seen in October and November, combined with a rise in consumer confidence, may have helped to boost spending. And with import figures showing that retailers were stocking up, let’s hope the holidays were the reason, as a recent dip in retail confidence could be just the bad news the sector didn’t need to hear at the start of the year
France Retail: retailers cautiously optimistic for the holidays
October brought good news for footwear sales and retailer confidence is also on the rise, despite negative footwear inflation and rising costs. However, the picture isn’t clear regarding consumer confidence, which fell to a five-month low in November as households worried about the economic outlook in light of France’s difficult political environment. Will this weigh on footwear sales in the last two months of the year, or will recent news that consumers are planning to spend more on the festive season prevail?
Footwear imports pressure South African manufacturers
South Africa's footwear imports surged by nearly 35% this year, while local production fell by 15%, prompting SAFLIA and unions to seek solutions to the challenges faced by local manufacturers
Brazilian footwear industry eyes recovery despite growing trade pressures
The Brazilian footwear industry is expected to surpass pre-pandemic production levels in 2025. However, rising low-cost competition from imports poses challenges to local manufacturers
Retail Flash: insights from key footwear markets
Explore the main retail trends in France, Germany, Japan, the UK, the US and Spain from our Retail Flash reports, highlighting a mix of recovery, persistent challenges and cautious optimism in global markets. In particular, while France and Germany continue to struggle, the US and Spain show signs of retail optimism
Steve Madden to cut on sourcing goods from China for fear of Trump’s tariffs
The US company is accelerating its plans to move production out of China after Trump’s victory in the country's presidential election increased the likelihood of higher tariffs on imported goods
Japan Retail: the picture is unclear for both consumers and retailers
Contrary to what was suggested in our previous flash, fashion retail sales have fallen sharply since April, by a total of 22.8%, while total retail sales have remained somewhat stable. In this context, the low footwear inflation in Japan, now close to 0%, tends to indicate a lack of demand. Perhaps the growth in consumer spending and tourism will help to turn the situation around, especially given the falling yen in September. However, for now, the future remains unclear for all
US Retail: expectations on the rise for the last quarter
The summer months have brought relief to footwear retailers, as sales in the category now appear to be on an upward trend. Although consumers remain cautious, the slowdown in employment and inflation is somehow starting to lift their spirits and retailers are showing signs of restocking. As the winter holidays approach, and despite question marks over the geopolitical turmoil and the upcoming presidential election, it’s safe to say that expectations are on the rise
UK Retail: good signs for the run-up to Christmas
The cold weather in July did not bring good news for the UK retail sector, but the following two months spiced things up again. Fashion retail sales appear to be back on track with the wider economy, as continued falling inflation has led to lower prices. Consumers are still reluctant to spend given the difficulties of recent years, but the challenge for retailers is now to keep up and not fall behind again in order to boost demand in the months leading to Christmas-
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