“We anticipate strong consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season. As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady. A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season. Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories”, commented Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s US economic forecaster.

Altogether, Deloitte’s projects that holiday sales will total 1.28 trillion US dollars to 1.3 trillion US dollars during the timespan November to January, as compared to the same period last year (in 2020 retail sales grew by 5.8% and reached 1.19 trillion US dollars, according to the US Census Bureau).

The company also forecasts an increase in e-commerce sales of 11-15%, year-over-year, during the   forthcoming holiday season compared to the 2020 season. This growth will presumably result in e-commerce sales in the order of 210 billion US dollars to 218 billion US dollars (last year e-commerce sales grew by 34.8%, reaching 189 billion US dollars).

Deloitte’s projections for the 2021-2022 holiday season reflect continued growth, as compared to the same period last year, in which holiday sales rose by 5.8%. The forecast takes into consideration already elevated retail sales and growth in disposable personal income that is likely to remain stable heading into the season. The still ongoing uncertainty towards the pandemic may impact the spending on goods.