“Following a sharp rise in spending post-pandemic, this season's retail sales are expected to moderately increase in line with trends over the past decade”, said Michael Jeschke, principal at Deloitte Consulting LLP and Retail & Consumer Products leader. “Our forecast indicates that e-commerce sales will remain strong as consumers continue to take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending. While this holiday season reflects a return to trend levels of growth, retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success”.

Deloitte's annual holiday retail forecast predicts a moderate increase in US holiday sales for 2024, projecting growth of between 2.3% and 3.3%. This would bring total holiday sales from November to January to approximately 1.59 trillion US dollars. While the growth is slightly slower than the 4.3% increase recorded during the 2023 holiday season, it reflects a return to the more moderate trends seen over the past decade.

A key driver of this growth will be e-commerce, which is expected to rise by 7% to 9% year-over-year, totalling between 289 billion US dollars and 294 billion US dollars. As consumers continue to prioritize convenience and seek out online deals, e-commerce remains an essential component of holiday shopping trends. Deloitte expects online growth to play a significant role in keeping overall retail sales strong, despite the challenges posed by inflation and rising consumer debt.

Deloitte's economist Akrur Barua commented that while inflation could negatively impact the nominal value of retail sales, declining inflation will help maintain consumer purchasing power. However, he also highlighted that the economic environment remains mixed, with rising credit card debt and depleted pandemic savings weighing on consumer spending.

Although the pace of retail sales growth is expected to slow compared to the post-pandemic boom, the outlook for 2024 remains positive. The combination of steady labour market conditions, healthy disposable personal income and the continued rise of e-commerce provides a solid foundation for holiday sales. As retailers gear up for the season, they will need to focus on meeting consumer expectations both in-store and online.