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Retail Flash: insights from key footwear markets
Explore the main retail trends in France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, the UK, the US and Spain from our Retail Flash reports, highlighting volatility in 2024 and mixed consumer and retailer sentiment. In particular, new tariffs on key trading partners could put pressure on US footwear prices, Germany’s online sector continues to expand and Japan faces rising inflation
France
Footwear retail in France showed a mixed performance in 2024. Sales were up by 10.4% and 8.5% in August and October compared to the same months in 2023, respectively, but the overall sales environment was challenging.
Between January and August, footwear imports into France totalled 319 million pairs, valued at 5.6 billion euros, a 5% year-over-year decline.
Inflation has played a key role in shaping consumer behaviour, with footwear inflation remaining below 2% throughout the year and reaching minus 0.7% in October. Retail confidence has fluctuated but showed signs of recovery in November, suggesting potential improvements in the sector.
Germany
E-commerce remains the driving force behind German retail, with online sales growing steadily while physical retail is volatile. Footwear sales have rebounded slightly after mid-year declines, but overall retail growth remains slow.
Inflation has stabilised at 2.4%, and footwear prices followed a similar trend, peaking in early 2024 before falling back towards the target level. Retail and consumer confidence remain fragile, reflecting broader economic uncertainties. While retailers reported a 15% rise in confidence from October to November, concerns about political instability and an economic slowdown remain.
Despite cautious optimism, retailers are adjusting import levels accordingly. Rising incomes may provide some relief, but ongoing economic uncertainties and political shifts continue to weigh on long-term recovery prospects.
Japan
Japanese retail sales have grown steadily since September 2024, with November’s figures beating market forecasts. Online sales continued to outperform physical stores, except in August, when favourable weather encouraged in-person shopping. However, the fashion sector, which includes footwear, clothing and accessories, struggled for most of the year, falling by 23% year-over-year from April to August.
Japan’s inflation rate reached 3.7% in December, the highest since January 2023, prompting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to 0.5%, the highest level in 17 years. Footwear inflation remained low throughout 2024, ending the year at 0.9%, in sharp contrast to 6.5% in 2023.
Consumer confidence has declined by 11% since March, reflecting concerns over borrowing costs and economic uncertainty. With continued inflationary pressures, the Bank of Japan is closely monitoring consumption and wage trends to determine further policy adjustments.
Netherlands
Footwear retail in the Netherlands experienced volatility throughout 2024, with strong growth in the summer months and record-breaking sales growth of 14.3% in September, followed by a 1.5% drop in October.
Meanwhile, online retail has continued to grow steadily, with digital sales increasing even when physical retail has struggled. The number of web-based businesses has risen significantly, reflecting the sector's resilience.
Inflation, which remained above 2% throughout 2024, has had an impact on footwear prices. Despite a volatile retail environment, business confidence indicators suggest optimism for the future.
United Kingdom
The UK’s textile, clothing and footwear (TCF) sector has shown resilience despite volatility in overall retail sales. While sales declined sharply in April and June, the industry posted modest year-over-year growth in August, September and October.
Retailers face mounting financial pressures, with upcoming tax hikes and rising employer costs expected to strain operations. Footwear imports, which had rebounded after falling in mid-2024, remain below 2023 levels, raising concerns about demand.
Inflation remains a challenge, rising to 3.5% in November, with footwear inflation fluctuating throughout the year. Wage growth has lagged behind inflation, reducing consumer purchasing power.
With inflation staying above target and potentially contractionary policies ahead, retailers are bracing for a difficult start to 2025.
United States
US footwear and clothing retail sales fluctuated in 2024. For instance, a strong growth in August was followed by a sharp decline in September, but October and November showed improvement. Despite the overall retail contraction, Bain & Co. forecasts a 4% year-over-year retail sales increase in 2025 to an estimated 5.2 trillion US dollars.
Online sales remain strong, with a 7.5% rise in the first three quarters of last year compared to the same period in 2023. Inflation remains a challenge, with the Federal Reserve managing rising consumer sentiment and potential inflationary pressures.
Footwear prices remained stable in 2024, and imports grew faster than demand. US footwear imports reached 24.8 billion US dollars in the first eleven months of the year, although retailers still hold high inventory levels.
Uncertainty looms as new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China could increase prices. Industry leaders have raised concerns that these tariffs will increase consumer costs, adding pressure to an already cautious economic outlook.
Spain
Fashion retail sales in Spain fluctuated throughout 2024, with positive growth in the early and late months but declining from March to June. Despite the volatility, November showed a modest increase of 0.2% year-over-year.
Consumer and retailer confidence showed signs of recovery, with retailers maintaining positive expectations and consumers gradually becoming more optimistic. However, declining sales and excess stock levels could hinder future imports. Spain imported 3.36 billion euros worth of footwear in the first half of 2024, with mixed performance across suppliers.
