Confidence
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US Retail: expectations on the rise for the last quarter
The summer months have brought relief to footwear retailers, as sales in the category now appear to be on an upward trend. Although consumers remain cautious, the slowdown in employment and inflation is somehow starting to lift their spirits and retailers are showing signs of restocking. As the winter holidays approach, and despite question marks over the geopolitical turmoil and the upcoming presidential election, it’s safe to say that expectations are on the rise
UK Retail: good signs for the run-up to Christmas
The cold weather in July did not bring good news for the UK retail sector, but the following two months spiced things up again. Fashion retail sales appear to be back on track with the wider economy, as continued falling inflation has led to lower prices. Consumers are still reluctant to spend given the difficulties of recent years, but the challenge for retailers is now to keep up and not fall behind again in order to boost demand in the months leading to Christmas
A favourable September for UK retail
As inflation fell to its lowest level in three and a half years, UK retail sales rose by 3.6% year-on-year in value terms in September, according to the latest ONS figures
Germany Retail: dark clouds are hanging again over the footwear sector
The positive signs on the horizon for the footwear retail sector reported in the previous Flash were short-lived. Sales in the first half of the year were not what retailers had hoped for, and the continued stabilisation of shoe prices shows no signs of turning the situation around. Against a negative macroeconomic backdrop, consumer confidence has been downward, and retailers face many challenges, including business closures and labour market instability. Footwear imports have started to fall, pointing to a possible crisis in the sector
Spain Retail: the future looks brighter for retail
Fashion sales finally picked up in July and August and are back in the green, after a worrying March. The truth is that the prospect of better economic growth and recent falls in inflation and unemployment have reassured Spanish consumers and given them a sense that the future may be brighter. All in all, this has led retailers to stock up in the hope that sales will continue to rise in the coming months. If these factors remain in place, the footwear sector is likely to end the year on a positive note
France Retail: still a blurred picture for footwear retail
French footwear retailers seem to be at a crossroads trying to figure out what will happen next. Prices are flat, sales are slow, consumer confidence is in general volatile, and stocks are building up (leading to a fall in imports). There was, however, a small improvement in consumer confidence in August, in line with the downward trend in inflation, suggesting that a much-needed relief may be reaching French households. Still, this may not be enough to boost retail sales this year as political uncertainty continues to cloud the horizon
UK retail sales rose slightly in August
UK retail sales increased just by 1% year-on-year in August, driven by summer shopping, reflecting the challenging retail environment that is likely to prevail for the rest of the year
Japan Retail: slow but steady future for retail
After unexpectedly slipping into recession at the end of 2023, the Japanese economy appears to be back on track to grow 3.2% in 2024 (FMI forecast). Against this backdrop, fashion retail sales are outperforming the overall retail performance and, interestingly, footwear inflation is now below the 2% target for any economy. However, the picture is not so clear-cut. The weak yen could dampen any growth in imports and the country is still adjusting to a major change in monetary policy. Nevertheless, as predicted in our last Flash, it’s safe to say that a modest recovery has taken place in the sector
US Retail: there’s still a great deal of uncertainty
There are still no solid signs of a recovery in the footwear retail sector. Despite mirroring last year’s trend, sales are consistently lower than in 2023, and footwear imports continue their downward trajectory. This may suggest that prices have not yet reached a level where consumers will bite. The truth is that the US economy has made great progress and inflation has eased considerably, but not enough to reassure consumers, who are still uncertain about what will happen next. And when that happens, discretionary items always pay the price
UK Retail: are the winds starting to blow in retailers’ favour?
Despite a slight upturn in sales of Textile, Clothing and Footwear in March, a number of factors, including an early Easter, poor weather and the high cost of living, soon led to a visible lack of demand. This will most likely lead to a decline in the number of footwear imports, breaking the growth trend seen in the first quarter of the year. On the bright side, inflation is at its lowest since November 2021 and the economy seems to be picking up, so there is room for some improvement in consumer sentiment. With the UK on the brink of a General Election and a series of sporting events promising to bring people onto the streets, are the winds starting to blow in retailers’ favour?
Germany Retail: positive signs on the horizon, but it’s not yet time to pop the champagne
Good news keep coming, but no one is out of the woods yet. Footwear retail sales outperformed overall retail sales in January and February, although they remain lower than the same period last year. Consumer sentiment remains negative but is improving, driven by lower inflation rates and wage growth, and retailer sentiment, although more negative, is following the trend. With recent news of a better economic outlook for the year and a rise in the value of imports at the start of the year, there is a chance that consumers will pull retailers up. Let’s see how the coming months unfold
France Retail: the ball is in the consumers’ court to boost retail
The first quarter of the year brought some contradictory signs in France, but perhaps all is not lost, especially for footwear retailers. Prices in the category have been rising at a slower pace than general items, becoming more stable every month, which perhaps helps explain the (albeit residual) increase in footwear sales in March. Confidence indicators for both retailers and consumers remain in the red, but the small year-on-year increase in imports at the start of 2024 points to higher demand later in the year. With the European elections in June and the Olympic and Paralympic Games in August, as well as real wage growth, the ball is in consumers’ court to boost retail
Spain Retail: concerns grow for retailers after an unexpected fall in sales
While 2024 began with consistent, albeit modest (around 1% monthly) growth, a concerning trend emerged in March, with retail sales falling sharply by 7.9% as compared to the previous month. However, a silver lining remains. Fashion is currently the retail sector experiencing the least inflation, and consumers still hold some optimism about the overall economy. This suggests that a period of resilience may be needed from retailers, but a potential rebound could be on the horizon
LAST CALL! Join the 10th edition of the World Footwear Business Conditions Survey
The WorldFootwear.com is asking all experts within the footwear industry to share their views on the current business situation. Join the new edition of the World Footwear Business Conditions Survey. WE WANT TO HEAR YOU!-
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