The Brazilian internal market is expected to absorb more than 85% of footwear sales, resulting in domestic consumption of between 754 and 757 million pairs and growth between 3 % and 3.4% compared to 2022. With this performance, the domestic market is still around 7% below the pre-pandemic level.

Abicalçados' Market Intelligence coordinator, Priscila Linck, pointed out that, unlike last year, when growth was driven by footwear exports, in 2023 growth will be generated by increased domestic consumption. According to Linck, there is a scenario of exchange rate devaluation shock, added to the reduction in the cost of international freight, benefiting Asian exports, the strong recovery of China, the adjustment of inventories in the United States and the international slowdown caused by the inflation. “The appreciated real makes the Brazilian product more expensive for the international buyer, at the same time that the drop in the value of international freight favours the resumption of exports from China. In the United States, our main destination abroad, retailers bought more than was consumed throughout 2022. Now, local retailers must carry out an inventory adjustment and, consequently, reduce their total imports”, she explained.

In this scenario, according to Abicalçados, footwear exports should fall between 6.7% and 9.1% in 2023 - to between 129 million and 132.4 million pairs -, still remaining above pre-pandemic levels in 2019. “In this way, compounding the drop in exports and the growth in the domestic market, we should end the year with a footwear production between 1% and 1.7% higher than in 2022, with the sum of approximately 860 million pairs produced ", projected Priscila Linck.